Bellwether
Who's leading, who's lagging, and why.
Bellwether is a sector-rotation forecasting stack with a 25-agent investor
ensemble layered on top. The XGBoost predictor ranks 26 sector & thematic
ETFs by expected forward relative strength; the agent ensemble (5 quant
analysts + 13 named investor personas + adversarial researchers + trader +
risk manager + portfolio manager) turns that signal into a per-ticker
verdict you can actually act on, with rationale in plain English.
Full design and roadmap: docs/DESIGN.md.
What's in the app
The web app is a Next.js 15 dashboard with eight top-level tabs plus a
secret Lab tab and a drill-in Agents view. Each tab is backed by its own
FastAPI route and (where applicable) a background ingestion job. A
page-aware assistant dock is mounted on every page.
Top nav, in order:
Sectors · Reddit + Catalysts · Flow · GEX · Explosive · Screener · Scanner · Discord Alerts.
Sectors — heatmap, cohorts, network (one tab)
The home page now consolidates three views behind a pill toggle:
- Heatmap — all 26 sector & thematic ETFs ranked by trailing return,
color-coded by theme (secular growth, cyclical, defensive,
rate-sensitive, …) and annotated with rank deltas, sparklines, and a
plain-English market read explaining why the ranking looks the
way it does, plus a forward-call narrative card and 1D / 5D top
contributors and detractors per sector.
- Cohorts — sub-industry pair-spread z-scores with Engle-Granger
cointegration flags and earnings-window annotations. Stacks alongside
a laggards-vs-sector-median panel on each sector drill-down.
- Network — force-directed graph over the 26 sector ETFs in two
modes: Correlation (pairwise Pearson r over a rolling window, MST
overlay) and Lead-lag (Granger-causality DAG). Plus time slider
for correlation history, macro overlay (DGS10, VIX, DXY, …),
watchlist ring, and shock mode (rates / VIX / oil stress).
Click any tile to drill into the sector's constituents:
Sortable on weight, 1d / 5d / 20d / 60d returns, and percent off the
52-week high. Inline price chart at the top, laggards-vs-median panel
beneath.
Agents — the 25-agent ensemble
Click any ticker (from any tab) to run (or fetch the cached run of) the
full ensemble:
Five rule-based analysts feed thirteen LLM-driven investor personas
(Buffett, Burry, Druckenmiller, Taleb, Soros, Simons, Klarman, Greenblatt,
Minervini, Cathie Wood, Damodaran, Lynch, Ackman). Each persona writes a
5-step persona-shaped chain of thought and emits a tri-state signal with
confidence and rationale. The top bull and top bear are then forced into a
structured cross-examination (target claim → flip condition → rebuttal →
confidence after). A bull researcher and bear researcher each write the
strongest case for their side; a Trader reconciles them; a Risk Manager
sizes the position; a Portfolio Manager makes the final long / short /
avoid call.
Beyond the rule-based analysts, the personas receive structured
evidence drawn from Unusual Whales (flow, dark pool, insider
asymmetry — buy-vs-sell value tilt with cluster detection, ETF
holdings, catalysts, spot-GEX 1m, institutional flow), the skylit.ai
/ Heatseeker structural snapshot + 0DTE Trinity signals, the Reddit
catalyst feed (post bodies included, not just titles), a news
sentiment rollup with the top three headlines per ticker from the
6-source news aggregator, and the latest sector rotation context.
You can talk to the synthesizer or any individual persona in their voice
via SSE-streamed chat at the bottom of the page.
Reddit + Catalysts — chatter board (one tab)
The old Reddit and Catalysts tabs are now stacked into a single
chatter board:
- Chatter leaderboard — the headline view. Top tickers across the
last 48h ranked by a composite of Reddit mention velocity, catalyst
posts, news hits, and price drift. Each row carries a one-line
why-it's-here tag, source-mix bar (Reddit / Catalyst / News), a
7-day mention sparkline, a tri-state predictor verdict (buy / fade /
watch / neutral), and click-through to a per-ticker evidence
drawer with the underlying posts, news items, and price reaction.
- Catalysts feed — collapsible section underneath. Every flagged
catalyst event (partnership / FDA / earnings beat / insider /
acquisition / …) from r/stocks, r/investing, r/wallstreetbets,
r/options, plus the 6-source news aggregator. Sortable, filterable,
with a 30-day per-category track record (hit rate + avg forward
return per type).
- Reddit chatter table — collapsible section for the full
predictive view: Apewisdom enrichment per ticker (sentiment bull
share, mention momentum, audience skew, contrarian + stealth-setup
flags) plus the
xgb_reddit_v1 ML predictor with scorecard
(precision @ top-K, lift vs. baseline) and per-subreddit edge.
Heads-up: depends on migrations 0009_reddit_mentions.sql,
0010_reddit_posts.sql, 0011_reddit_predictions.sql,
0013_reddit_outcomes.sql, and 0028–0030 (catalysts + news) plus
the apewisdom, reddit_rss, and news_aggregator ingestion jobs.
If you see "failed to fetch", run make migrate then make daily.
Flow — unusual options activity
This is the beginning of the README. Read the rest at the original. Read the full README ↗
