Independents Tracker
Can independents win in 2026? Live Kalshi and Polymarket odds and FEC campaign money for every
independent candidate for Congress that a prediction market lists, plus a party-line (party unity)
score for every member of the 119th Congress, with every vote against the party linked to the
official record.
Live: https://theguysaccount.github.io/independents-win-tracker/
- Neutral and sourced: every number shows its source and the time it was read. No endorsements.
- Fully automated: a GitHub Actions job rereads the sources twice an hour, tests, rebuilds and publishes, and a watchdog restarts it if GitHub skips a run.
- No server, no keys, no cookies. Static HTML on GitHub Pages; Python standard library only.
What's on the site
| Page | What it answers |
|---|
/ | Before Election Day: the independents ranked by market odds. After: how each market resolved. From Jan. 3, 2027: the party-line index first |
/results/2026/ | Permanent race-by-race results: each market's resolution, what the race settled for, the state's official results |
/candidates/<name>/ | One candidate: Kalshi and Polymarket prices, price history, the whole race's market, FEC money, money in the race, an embeddable badge |
/candidates/ | All tracked independents, plus every other independent FEC filer |
/party-line/ | Every member of Congress by party-line score, House and Senate |
/party-line/<member>/ | One member's score, rank in party, and each vote against the party |
/methodology/, /data/, /about/ | How it works, CSV downloads, neutrality and corrections |
/feed.xml, /sitemap.xml, /badge/*.svg | Daily odds feed, sitemap, live badges |
Run it locally
Needs Python 3.9+ and nothing else (Chrome is optional, for share images).
python3 -m tracker.refresh # read every source that changed (FEC, Kalshi, Polymarket, Voteview)
python3 -m tracker.og --site _site # build the site into _site/ and render share cards
python3 -m tracker.guard _site # the checks the deploy runs
python3 -m http.server 8000 --directory _site
The committed data/ folder is a complete snapshot, so python3 -m tracker.build works offline.
Test
python3 -m unittest discover -s tests -v
Covers FEC parsing (and that addresses never leak), market discovery and name matching, the
implied-price rule, party-line scoring (including party switchers and independents' caucus),
official-record links, and a full site build from synthetic data and from the committed snapshot,
guarded for broken links, missing sources and advocacy language.
Deploy
Pushing to main builds and deploys through .github/workflows/update.yml (GitHub Pages,
"GitHub Actions" source). The same workflow runs twice an hour. See OPERATIONS.md for
every job, how each one fails safely, and the keys a human can turn later (custom domain, money).
Layout
tracker/ refresh.py (orchestrator) · fec.py · markets.py · votes.py · build.py · og.py · guard.py · indexnow.py · selftest.py
config/ tracker.json (scope, slate, thresholds) · indexnow-key.txt (public by design)
data/ committed snapshots: fec.json, markets.json, history.csv, votes.json, rollcalls.json, status.json
static/ style.css · app.js · favicon.svg · og-default.png
tests/ unit and end-to-end tests with synthetic fixtures
Data and licenses
Code: MIT. Derived FEC and Voteview data: CC0; please credit the FEC, Voteview (Lewis, Poole,
Rosenthal, Boche, Rudkin and Sonnet) and the congress-legislators project. Market prices belong to
Kalshi and Polymarket and are shown with attribution; use their APIs and terms for reuse.
Not affiliated with any candidate, campaign, party, PAC, the Independent National Convention,
Kalshi or Polymarket. Corrections: open an issue.
