Stratum CFB
College-football spread and total forecasts from a Python V5 season engine, an immutable Cloudflare R2 lake, Neon Postgres and a Vercel web app.
The public product is Stratum CFB. Repository, package, infrastructure identifiers and the existing website address retain their technical names. See the brand decision.
Current status and operations
See docs/status.md for the active release, week state and published scoreboard. V5 model development is complete and accepted. The 2026 record is one continuous point-in-time V5 record from Week 0 (record methodology); six slates are not a prelaunch requirement. V4 is historical evidence, documented in the V4 retrospective, and is no longer an operational model.
The weekly runbook is the sole operational authority. build_season_revision.py produces pinned inputs; run_season.py prepare recomputes and verifies the season; run_season.py release stages and atomically activates its serving projections. Preview rehearsal is mandatory before Production activation. Rollback reactivates a prior verified V5 season release through the owner credential. Legacy publish/freeze/close commands refuse execution.
Revision manifests and score exceptions must be committed before preparing from a clean tree. Do not commit between prepare and the last release: release requires the exact prepared commit. Production activation and all git commits remain owner-controlled.
Modeling and research
verified football data → validated measurements → opponent adjustment
→ continuous team ratings/state → spread/total forecast
→ point-in-time evaluation → timestamped line comparison
V5 Blitzkrieg is the only operational model. Research uses 2015–2019 and 2021–2025 as development evidence and excludes 2020. Market lines enter only after football forecasting. Research remains isolated from serving and publication until separately promoted; betting decisions are deferred. Started and reconstructed games remain visible on the Games tab because forecasts use pre-cutoff observations; grades use the best eligible pre-kickoff quote under the record methodology.
Documentation
Local setup and checks
uv sync
npm --prefix web install
make help # every available target
make check # mirrors CI: ruff, contracts, quality registry, pytest, mkdocs --strict, web lint/typecheck/tests/build
The web app has four tabs: Games, Ratings, Graphs and Model. See web development.
Use CFB_STORAGE_BACKEND=r2 with the intended environment wrapper for lake operations. The local backend requires CFB_STORAGE_BACKEND=local and an accessible external CFB_MODEL_DATA_ROOT; never create repository-local ./data/. Credentials come from the Keychain wrappers and must not appear in logs. See web development and the quickstart.
CI
CI runs Ruff, contracts, the data-quality registry check, strict MkDocs, Python tests with a 60% coverage gate (including rating-publication and database suites) and the web checks. Database tests use disposable PostgreSQL instances; never point TEST_DATABASE_URL at a serving database. V4 is documented only in the retrospective.
