FBIS — Fastwater Betting Intelligence System

Operator dashboard for independent projections, Pinnacle pricing, +EV, and forecast grading. Hosted on Cloudflare Pages. No droplet.

Live: https://fbis-myz.pages.dev/

FBIS is not a picks site. The loop is:

forecast → no-vig price → compare to Pinnacle → require +EV → record → grade final → diagnose error → repeat

Champion model weights do not auto-rewrite from last night’s W/L.

Boards

MLB · NBA · NFL · CFB · CBB · SYS (forecast tracking)

College baseball was dropped. NBA was added.

Book stack

One job per source. They are never interchangeable.

Role	Source	Use
Execution	Heritage	Where you actually bet. Every rec is a Heritage ticket.
Sharp / fair	Pinnacle	Market layer, vig, no-vig, CLV. Parlay eu region.
Sentiment	Kalshi	Public implied probability only. Never a betting price.
MLB scores	Baseball Savant	Run projections from SP quality + team RPG. Not the 1.5 run line.
MLB matchups	Ballpark Pal	Optional overlay: simulated runs, F5, park, starter matchups.

Parlay does not list Heritage. The Pinnacle number is the benchmark to shop at Heritage — it is not recorded as a Heritage execution price unless Heritage is actually in the feed. If Pinnacle is missing, the market stays empty — Kalshi is not a fallback.

Every selection shows Pinnacle vig (two-way hold) and the no-vig probability. Fair American is 1/p. EV is expectancy at the Pinnacle price. A projection is not a bet until it clears sport-aware edge and +3% EV at a complete two-way. Missing EV fails the gate. Unpriced model disagreement is a lean, not a qualified ticket.

Baseball run line is always 1.5 (full game) / 0.5 (F5). Alternate lines are never rewritten onto those numbers.

How scores are projected

• MLB — Two independent models. Proprietary: Savant RPG × starter ERA-eq × 1.04 home, clamped 2.3–7.2. Ballpark Pal: simulated runs and Pal win probability as a separate layer. Pal never overwrites Savant and is never a sportsbook price. Win-prob blends Pinnacle no-vig, ESPN, Savant score, Pal, and W-L form.
• CFB — Independent score model. Authorized prior is CollegeFootballData SP+/FPI/SRS/Elo for all FBS (cfb-prior-v2-cfbd) when CFBD_API_KEY is bound. Feature stack includes CFBD EPA proxies, transfer deltas, coaching continuity, returning production, ESPN QB-room continuity, and transfer-QB prior production signals (when CFBD player history is available). Fallback is ESPN FPI + opponent-adjusted 2025 SRS. HFA 2.5 (0 on confirmed neutral). Pinnacle remains the market layer only. League-average-only games cannot qualify.
• NBA / NFL / CBB — Pinnacle total/spread split into implied team scores until an independent sim is wired. CBB shadow challengers (CBB-CBBD-RATINGS-v1 and related) use CollegeBasketballData AdjOE×opp AdjDE / national × possessions and cannot qualify. KenPom is not required. Win-prob blends no-vig Pinnacle, ESPN, score (line-implied margin), and W-L form.

Hover a Proj cell for the recipe. SYS explains every board.

Tracking (SYS)

The website is not the collector. Board routes (/api/slate, /api/today, /api/ticker, /api/bets) are read-only and do not trigger freeze/harvest writes. GitHub Actions call /api/collect through the day (full Parlay odds at ~8am and 11am CT; cache-only later) so every scheduled game gets pregame checkpoints even if nobody opens the board. /api/harvest (~06:20 CT) attaches finals and writes them to D1. The workflow runs one job per sport (MLB/NBA/NFL/CFB/CBB) with football split by ?dayOffset= so a large CFB slate cannot exhaust the Cloudflare subrequest budget and starve other boards. A 207/partial or 500/failed collect does not stamp last_collect_success_at. UTC crons are fixed; Chicago offset is CDT (UTC-5, ~Mar–Nov) or CST (UTC-6, ~Nov–Mar). Scheduled verification requires an actual GitHub schedule run, not only workflow_dispatch.

/api/health is a read-only operational endpoint (no upstream calls, no writes) that reports deployment commit SHA, D1 binding, and scheduled collect/harvest health.

SYS reads D1 (cache is a 21-day fallback). For heavy windows (season/lifetime totals and all-board summaries), SYS can use pre-aggregated daily_metrics rows so the page does not need to scan the full snapshot ledger. Projection Accuracy reports actual vs projected totals, % bias, home/away bias, MAE, median abs, RMSE, within-X distribution, Pal vs proprietary vs ensemble vs Pinnacle, team/park/starter/month slices, and both score-winner and ensemble-probability winner hit. Calibration includes home p below 50%. Logged tickets stay a separate dataset from every-game forecast error.

Checkpoints: FIRST_AVAILABLE · EARLY · MORNING · LINEUP_CONFIRMED · PREGAME · CLOSE. FIRST_AVAILABLE is the first freeze; older EARLY rows still count as the first-available alias.

CLV is entry no-vig vs close (last pregame) no-vig for the side you bet — not model fair vs market.

Model version: FBIS-v1.4 (platform) / CFB-FBIS-v2 (CFB production projection)

CFB-FBIS-v2 (production projection) — Fitted M*=A / T*=A ridge on provenance-repaired 2022–2025 design rows. Coherent scores: home = (total + margin) / 2, away = (total - margin) / 2. Runtime loads fold3 A coefficients from data/models/cfb-fbis-v2-fitted-aa.js (betas verbatim from fitted-coefficients-final.json). canQualify = false. Wager authorization disabled. Closing lines remain evaluation-only and are never model features.

CFB prior layer — Team-specific prior is CollegeFootballData SP+/FPI/SRS/Elo covering all FBS when CFBD_API_KEY is bound. Feature feeds include CFBD EPA proxies, transfer portal deltas, coaching continuity, returning production, and ESPN QB continuity. Missing feature feeds fail soft and are flagged as absent. League-average-only cannot qualify, show LOG, or create a strategy ticket.

Strategy FBIS-HC-v1 — Qualified tickets with EV ≥ 8% (CONVICTION). Production seed identity and graded tickets live in Cloudflare D1 (strategy_tickets role=seed). The repo ships synthetic cohort fixtures under data/cohorts/ for offline tests only — not real operator slips. Reconstruction is operator-declared until journal EV/timestamps are imported. Champion weights, logistic k, and qualification gates stay frozen. Prospective matches still use the CONVICTION / EV ≥ 8% conjunction and are graded separately from forecast MAE/Brier.

CFB HFA — Production champion remains 2.5 points at a true home venue and 0 at a confirmed neutral site. Team-specific score-based and market-residual HFA live as shadow challengers only. Blue Chip Analytics 2026 raw/smooth values are stored as dated third-party research and are never production recommendations. FBIS does not reproduce Blue Chip smoothing and does not invent Action Network ratings. Missing historical closes keep the market-residual challenger unavailable.

Data

• MLB Stats API — schedule, scores, probable pitchers, F5 linescore (free)
• Odds provider pool (router) — Parlay → TheOdds API → SharpAPI → TheRundown → fail closed / no market data. Backups are queried only when a preferred provider is unavailable, exhausted, rate-limited, stale, or incomplete. Fresh complete primary data does not burn backup quota. Absence of any one provider is a safe degrade; absence of all valid market data fails closed. Soft SharpAPI/TheRundown quotes never populate pin*; wager qualification never fabricates market data.
• ParlayAPI — preferred primary for Pinnacle game lines (3 credits, eu region), cached 15 minutes. Kalshi sentiment is a 1-credit pull; empty Kalshi/F5 responses cache for 6 hours.
• The Odds API — intentional production fallback (THEODDS_API_KEY) for Pinnacle h2h/spreads/totals when Parlay is unavailable/exhausted.
• SharpAPI — intentional production fallback (SHARPAPI_API_KEY, newly rotated keys only). Soft DraftKings/FanDuel full-game lines for market coverage / display; never pin*.
• The Rundown — intentional production fallback (THERUNDOWN_API_KEY, newly rotated keys only). Soft DraftKings/FanDuel/BetMGM full-game lines for market coverage / display; never pin*.
• Open-Meteo weather — free venue forecast attached on every slate. Outdoor / non-closed-roof MLB, NFL, and CFB projections apply weather impact; indoor/dome/closed roofs skip it. NFL soft-odds stubs use a home-stadium catalog; CFB CFBD boards geocode from venue name or (City, ST) labels.
• Ballpark Pal — optional; set BALLPARK_PAL_API_KEY when you have it (15k requests/month)
• CollegeFootballData — CFB ratings (SP+/FPI/SRS/Elo) and college research jobs. Set CFBD_API_KEY as a Pages secret (never commit the value). Optional alias CBBD_API_KEY for the same bearer. See docs/college-research.md.

The operator ticket journal still lives in the browser (fbis-learning-v1). POST /api/strategy is secret-protected (x-harvest-secret or STRATEGY_IMPORT_SECRET) and does not accept arbitrary CORS. Heritage bet-slip Confirm from the operator board is same-origin and does not paste HARVEST_SECRET. Collect/harvest still use that Pages secret. Parse/preview does not write. Changing the paste after preview requires parse again before write. Imported slips are executed bets, separate from the FBIS-HC-v1 seed cohort in D1. Frozen projections live in Function cache (~21 days). Cloudflare D1 (schema.sql plus migrations/) is the authoritative research ledger.

See SECURITY.md for secret-handling rules.

Tests

npm test

Local

npm install
npm run dev

Opens on port 5175. Copy .env.example to .env.

Deploy (free Cloudflare Pages)

npx wrangler pages secret put PARLAY_API_KEY --project-name fbis
npx wrangler pages secret put BALLPARK_PAL_API_KEY --project-name fbis
npx wrangler pages secret put CFBD_API_KEY --project-name fbis
npm run deploy

Needs Wrangler logged in (npx wrangler login) or CLOUDFLARE_API_TOKEN in the environment.