Foxlight Aurora

Northern lights forecast for Oulu · Revontulet Oulussa

Answers "Should I go out tonight, when, and where?" for aurora hunting around Oulu, Finland (65°N). Enter an area or landmark (or use your location) to rank the viewing spots by distance from you.

Built with Next.js 16 (static export), Tailwind CSS 4 and TypeScript. No UI libraries; charts are inline SVG. Hosted on GitHub Pages and rebuilt with fresh data by GitHub Actions: every 10 minutes while it can be dark, hourly in daylight.

npm install
npm test         # vitest — the visibility model, parsers and forecast logic
npm run dev      # http://localhost:3000
npm run build    # static site in ./out (set BASE_PATH=/repo-name for a project page)

How it works

• Build-time aggregator — lib/data.ts#getAuroraData fetches every source in parallel, trims the payloads (~5 MB raw → ~16 KB) and computes the forecast. The page and data.json are both generated from it. Every fetch is retried, every parser validates the format and throws on anything unexpected.
• Never a confident wrong answer — if a critical source (Kp forecast, FMI cloud forecast) is missing or incomplete, the build fails and the previous correct deployment stays online. Optional sources show as "unavailable", and live readings older than 30 min show as "delayed" instead of "now". If the page itself is over 75 min old, visitors see a warning banner (computed in the browser, so it works even if the update pipeline stops).
• Scheduled rebuilds — .github/workflows/deploy.yml runs tests, builds and deploys on every push, every 10 min from 13:00 to 05:59 UTC (when it can be dark in Oulu) and hourly otherwise. GitHub runs schedules late or skips them, so an external timer triggers the same workflow on the same pattern (see Reliable refresh). Open pages check version.json at once when opened, brought back or back online, and every 2 minutes while open, and load a newer build under a one-off address so neither GitHub's CDN nor the browser (10-minute caches) can serve the old one. Runs queue rather than cancel each other, with timeouts, so one stuck deploy can't block updates.
• Visibility model — lib/oulu.ts: chance = 100 × activity(Kp, spot.minKp, moonlight) × (1 − clouds) × darkness(sun altitude). Activity is a logistic curve, even at minKp + 0.25 with a 0.5 Kp scale; spots have an even chance from Kp 3+ (dark sky), 4+ (semi-dark shore) or 5+ (city lights). Calibrated to FMI's statistic that auroras show on ~25% of clear, dark nights around Oulu: over Sep 2014 – Apr 2025 (GFZ Kp), dark spots average ~34 on clear dark nights, semi-dark ~16. Alerts follow the same points: Kp 3+ → "Activity reaches dark spots", 5+ → "reaches the city centre".
• Moonlight — lib/moon.ts gives the moon's altitude and phase (within 0.3° and 1% of JPL Horizons) and a 0–1 moonlight from Allen's phase law (a half moon ≈ a tenth of a full one), fading below 30° altitude. It adds to the sky's own glow, each minKp step being about a doubling of glow (moonlitKp): a full moon high up turns a dark spot into a semi-dark one (+1 Kp) and costs brighter spots less. Backtested on GFZ Kp 2014–2025: dark spots 31.7% → 29.0% of clear dark nights overall, 29.6% → 18.5% on the nights with a bright moon up.
• Nowcast — nowcastKp (lib/oulu.ts) checks Kp against FMI's R-index from Oulujärvi and Ranua (either side of Oulu), FMI's own 5-minute auroral activity index with per-station thresholds (yellow = 50% chance of weak auroras → even chance at dark spots, red = 50% chance of strong auroras → even chance in the city). Local activity above Kp wins (a substorm the 3-hour Kp hasn't caught yet). When the stations are quieter, Kp counts for at most 1 more than they show (auroras further north seen low on the horizon), and below yellow never more than an even chance at dark spots, so "likely" is never shown while FMI sees no activity. Without fresh readings (< 30 min) Kp is used as is.
• Forecast — lib/forecast.ts scores 72 hours per spot, groups them into nights and finds each night's best window. The current hour uses the measured nowcast (so it agrees with "now"), handing over to NOAA's Kp forecast linearly within 3 hours.
• Search engines — app/robots.ts, app/sitemap.ts (lastmod = data time), app/manifest.ts, a static share image (app/opengraph-image.png, PNG so GitHub Pages serves it as an image), canonical URL and JSON-LD (WebSite, WebPage, FAQPage) in app/page.tsx. Site name, title and description live in lib/site.ts.
• Analytics — components/Analytics.tsx loads Google Analytics (G-8BDX35ERF0) only after a visitor taps "Allow" (EU consent rules); declining sends nothing to Google. The choice is kept in localStorage and can be changed from the footer. Only counted on foxlight-aurora.github.io, and auto-refresh reloads are not counted as page views.
• Your location — place search uses OpenStreetMap Nominatim from the browser; the chosen point is kept only in localStorage. Distances default to Oulu Market Square.

Correctness checks

Two safety nets, so a wrong score doesn't wait for someone to notice it:

• Before every deploy — scripts/fetch-data.mts runs verifySnapshot (lib/verify.ts) and skips the deploy if it finds anything, leaving the last good site online. It checks that every spot's "now" follows from its inputs, that the chart's current hour uses the same activity and clouds as "now", that night peaks and best nights add up, that Kp and the nowcast follow from NOAA and FMI, and the sun by a second formula (NOAA's full algorithm). Every check is exact or has a wide margin, so a correct snapshot never fails (including at dusk). Separately, the data step refuses an FMI cloud answer a cache has held over 20 minutes. lib/data.test.ts breaks a snapshot in each of these ways and checks it's caught.
• After every deploy and every 30 minutes — .github/workflows/watchdog.yml runs scripts/watchdog.mts on the live site: it's updating (35 min at night, 90 by day, allowing for NOAA's ~15-minute Kp gap after midnight UTC), the page and data.json come from the same build, the data passes verifySnapshot, and its Kp matches NOAA's. A failure opens the issue "Live site check failed" (GitHub emails the owner), closed again once the checks pass. Run it locally with npx tsx scripts/watchdog.mts.

Reliable refresh

GitHub's schedule: trigger is best effort (runs are often hours late), so cron-job.org calls the workflow's workflow_dispatch on time. Two jobs, timezone UTC, both POSTing to https://api.github.com/repos/foxlight-aurora/foxlight-aurora.github.io/actions/workflows/deploy.yml/dispatches with body {"ref":"main"}:

Job	Minutes	Hours (UTC)
Night	0, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50	13–23, 0–5
Day	0	6–12

Headers: Accept: application/vnd.github+json, X-GitHub-Api-Version: 2026-03-10, Authorization: Bearer <token>. The token is a fine-grained personal access token scoped to this repository only, with Actions: Read and write and nothing else. A successful call returns 200 with the run details (204 on the older 2022-11-28 API version). When the token expires, create a new one and paste it into both jobs.

Data sources

What	Source
Kp observed + 3-day forecast	NOAA SWPC noaa-planetary-k-index-forecast.json
Solar wind speed, Bz	NOAA SWPC real-time solar wind (json/rtsw/*)
27-day outlook	NOAA SWPC 27-day-outlook.txt
OVATION aurora probability	NOAA SWPC ovation_aurora_latest.json
Cloud cover forecast per spot	FMI open data (meteorologist-edited forecast)
Auroral activity now	FMI R-index (space.fmi.fi), Oulujärvi + Ranua

Note: GitHub pauses scheduled workflows after 60 days without repository activity — re-enable it from the Actions tab if that happens.

License

Copyright © 2026 Abhishek Singh Sambyal

This program is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or (at your option) any later version. It is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See LICENSE for the full text.

Forecast data comes from NOAA SWPC and FMI under their own terms; the Geist, Barlow Condensed and JetBrains Mono fonts are under the SIL Open Font License.