Heros Agents

https://heros-agent.space — five agents that do real work and say plainly what they did not, plus Market watch: what could move the US stock market over the next two weeks, and which way. The whole site is in English and 中文.

The agents

Agent	What it does	Where
Heros	Evaluates an AI agent: point her at a repository, she assesses it across nine axes, and opens a pull request only once you say yes	https://eval.heros-agent.space
阿桥 Opportunity Bridge	Finds real jobs, training and subsidies, and reads the public conditions out to you one by one; never decides eligibility for you	https://jobs.heros-agent.space
FORGE	Engineering design out loud: describe a part, get a shape you can rotate, section and measure, with the reasoning behind every decision	https://forge.heros-agent.space
Vera · 维拉	Prepares legal cases and looks after your health; licensed attorneys and physicians sign off on everything that matters	https://act.heros-agent.space
Aoi · 葵	Game night: Texas Hold’em with friends and AI players, and board games designed from your description; play money only	https://play.heros-agent.space

They share three habits: ask before guessing, a person signs off on anything that costs money or can’t be undone, and keep the record of who asked, what ran and what changed.

Market watch

The question it answers: what is scheduled over the next two weeks that could move the Dow Jones, the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500, and which way is each index more likely to go?

What you see

Part	What it shows
Index strip	The last close and daily change for the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500, plus the VIX and the 10-year Treasury yield
Timeline	Every trading day in the next two weeks, in order. Before the open, today's call shows the overnight futures it was read from. Each day opens with a session call for each index. Under it are the day’s events, each with its time (Eastern), category, impact level, consensus and prior figures, and an up ▲ or down ▼ call for each index, with a probability and how big the reaction is likely to be
Calendar	Monday-to-Friday weeks. Each day shows how many events it has, how many are high impact, and the three session calls. Pick a day to see its events. Past days show what the index actually did, with ✓ or ✗ against the call
Track record	How often the calls were right for each index, how often the calls with a lean were right, and a Brier score (0.25 is a coin flip; lower is better)
The pre-open signal, tested	How often the close followed the opening move on the last 12 months of sessions the model never saw, next to simply leaning up, and how the 9:20 AM futures reading did over the last ~50 sessions
Event details	A one-line read of the event, the upside and downside cases, what to watch, how confident the call is, and where the data came from
How this was made	When it was last updated, how many sources answered, whether any analysis was sent back and redone, and whether the calls came from the AI analyst or the rules-based baseline
Headlines	The latest market-moving headlines

You can filter to Fed & macro, earnings or high impact only. The page remembers your view and language, and works on a phone.

What it covers

Category	Events
Fed	FOMC rate decisions (including the meetings with the dot plot), minutes, the Fed Chair’s speeches
Inflation	CPI, PCE, PPI
Jobs	The monthly jobs report (payrolls, unemployment, wages), JOLTS job openings, ADP, weekly jobless claims
Growth & consumer	GDP, ISM manufacturing and services, retail sales, consumer confidence and sentiment, durable goods, housing
Earnings	Companies worth $200 billion or more, marked when they are in the Dow or are Nasdaq heavyweights

High-impact events (FOMC, CPI, PCE, the jobs report, GDP, the largest companies’ earnings) usually move all three indices. Low-impact ones rarely move any. The timeline lists the most important first, up to 36 events.

Data comes from the Federal Reserve, Nasdaq’s economic and earnings calendars, Yahoo Finance for index levels, and CNBC and MarketWatch for headlines.

How a call is made

1. A baseline starts from what it can show: the market’s long-run tendency to rise, the past week’s momentum, what consensus expects compared with last time, and for earnings, expected growth. Once a figure is released, the surprise versus consensus takes over. A hot inflation print usually hurts stocks, the Nasdaq most; strong growth usually helps, the Dow most.
2. The AI analyst reads the events, the market’s levels and the headlines, sees the baseline, and makes its own call for each index: up or down, a probability, and the likely size of the move, with a short explanation in both languages. If it disagrees with the baseline, it says why.
3. An independent critic checks every analysis. It sends one back if it cites a number that isn’t in the data, sounds like investment advice, or is more certain than the evidence allows. A rejected analysis is redone once. If it still fails, the page shows the baseline call and says so.
4. The session call for each day combines that day’s events, weighted by how much each index is exposed to each one. A quiet day leans on the market’s longer-run tendency.
5. Every call is scored. A day’s call is locked before the 9:30 AM ET open and can’t be changed afterwards. After the close it is checked against what the index actually did, and the result goes into the track record.

The pre-open call: where the real edge is

For a day a week away, nobody knows which way the market will close, so those calls stay close to 50%. The one strong, measurable guide is where the market opens. Over the last five years, when the S&P 500 opened more than 0.5% higher it closed higher 84% of the time; when it opened more than 0.5% lower it closed higher only 13% of the time. Index futures trade overnight and show where the open is heading.

So on every trading day:

1. At 9:20 AM ET the desk reads S&P 500, Nasdaq-100 and Dow futures against the previous 4 PM ET close.
2. It turns that move into a probability with a model fitted on five years of history, and combines it with the day's events.
3. At 9:30 AM ET, the open, the call locks. Later updates can't change it; the page marks it "Locked at the open" and scores it against the close.

Tested on the last 12 months of sessions the model never saw, this was right about 70% of the time (Dow 69%, S&P 500 70%, Nasdaq 73%) against 53% for leaning up every day. Read from futures at 9:20, as it is done live, it was right 69–81% of the time over the last 48 sessions. The model is refitted every Sunday, and an independent check refuses it unless it beats leaning up on data it hasn't seen.

After-hours reports: when a company such as Microsoft or Amazon reports after the close, its stock moves in after-hours trading. The desk translates that move into each index — by company size for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, by share price for the Dow — and folds it into the next morning's call.

No clear lean: a call between 48% and 52% shows as "– No clear lean" instead of an arrow. It still counts in the Brier score, but the track record also shows how the calls with a lean did on their own.

How sure it is

Days ahead, the probabilities stay modest: at most 66% from the baseline and 85% from the AI analyst, and most sit close to 50–60%, because honestly that is how much anyone can know in advance. The pre-open call can go higher — up to 90% — when futures have moved clearly. The track record is there so you can judge the calls for yourself.

When it updates

Three times each weekday, at 7:30 AM, 12:00 PM and 4:30 PM Eastern, plus the 9:20 AM pre-open update, and again 15 minutes after each major release, so the timeline shows the actual figure (or the after-hours reaction) and a fresh call.

What it is not

Market watch is AI-generated market commentary, for information only. It is not investment advice: no buy or sell recommendations, no price targets, no single-stock picks. Market holidays are not shown as closed yet.

Support

Every agent is built and run independently. Sponsor them on Patreon or Afdian (爱发电), or write to [email protected].

License

Apache License 2.0. See NOTICE.

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Agents are AI. They do not replace licensed professionals or official decisions. Games use play money only.

For developers: running and deploying the site is in deploy/README.md; the multi-agent system behind Market watch is in market/README.md and market/DESIGN.md.