Idea Locator: the ripeness board
Live: https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/ · Ledger: calls, verdicts and resolutions · Data (CC BY 4.0): board.json, graveyard.csv, slips.csv · Screens: docs/screens
A public, dated, hash-chained record of calls on whether failed startup categories are viable again. Each category names:
- the constraint that killed it (a cost, a law, a capability, an install base);
- the metric that has moved since, refreshed from public data;
- the funded companies that died proving demand, each with a source;
- a dated call with a probability, a resolver and a falsifier, frozen on an append-only SHA-256 chain before it resolves.
The rule behind it: a category is worth re-attempting when funded companies already burned real money proving the demand and the specific constraint that killed them has since crossed a threshold. Webvan and Instacart are the canonical pair. The method page has the backtests and every test that failed.
Also on the site:
- a re-look screen that maps a fund's passed deals to categories, privately in the browser;
- a regulatory unlock calendar from the Federal Register;
- a slip corpus of how often dated commitments actually happen on time;
- a graveyard dataset.
How it runs (no human in the loop)
| Job | Workflow | When | Fails safe because |
|---|
| Refresh metrics (FRED, World Bank, OWID), the Federal Register calendar and ClinicalTrials.gov; resolve calls whose rule can now be decided; commit; redeploy | refresh.yml | Mondays 06:17 UTC | each source fails independently and keeps its last good data; tests run before any commit |
| Test, guard the ledger, build, render share images, deploy to Pages, ping IndexNow | deploy.yml | on content or code changes, after a refresh, or by hand | tests, the build or the ledger guard failing stops the job; Pages keeps the last good deploy |
| Live health check, source link check, tests on main | selftest.yml | Thursdays 05:41 UTC | read-only checks |
| Keep-alive: re-enable schedules, heartbeat commit after 40 quiet days | keepalive.yml | called by every scheduled workflow | runs even when the calling job fails |
| Tests on every push and pull request (Python 3.9 and 3.12) | ci.yml | every push | n/a |
Details, alerts and the keys a human can turn later: OPERATIONS.md.
Layout
il/ Python 3.9+, standard library only
data.py load and validate data/ (the build refuses invalid data)
ledger.py append-only hash chain: canonical JSON, verify, prefix check
register.py write new calls and verdict changes onto the ledger
refresh.py fetch public data, build the calendar, run automatic resolvers
resolve.py resolve a manual call with evidence (used by the scheduled review)
site.py static site generator (pages, embeds, share-card HTML, sitemap, data exports)
charts.py server-rendered SVG charts
data/
categories/ one JSON file per category: verdict, constraint, metric, graveyard, evidence, sources
calls.json calls to register (once registered, the ledger is the source of truth)
slips.json the slip corpus
backlog.json candidate categories for the scheduled review to verify
live/ fetched data (metrics, calendar, trials, run log), committed by refresh.yml
ledger/chain.jsonl the ledger
site/ CSS, browser scripts (share, ledger verifier, re-look), static page bodies, IndexNow key
scripts/ share images (og.py), ledger guard, IndexNow, health and link checks, screenshots
tests/ unittest suites + Node tests for the browser scripts
Run, test, deploy
python3 -m il.refresh # fetch public data and resolve due calls (no keys needed)
python3 -m il.site # build into dist/
python3 scripts/og.py # optional: render share images with local Chrome
python3 -m http.server 4731 --directory dist
python3 -m unittest discover -s tests -t .
node --test tests/js.test.mjs # after a build; checks the browser verifier and re-look matcher
Deploys happen on push to main (deploy.yml). To deploy by hand: gh workflow run deploy.yml.
Changing content
- Edit a category: change
data/categories/<slug>.json, then run python3 -m il.register. A verdict change is appended to the ledger with today's date. Then run the tests.
- Add a call: append it to
data/calls.json and run python3 -m il.register. Registered calls can never change; to revise a view, add a new call.
- Resolve a manual call:
python3 -m il.resolve <id> yes|no|void --evidence "..." --url https://....
The deploy job refuses to publish a ledger that does not extend the one already live (scripts/guard_ledger.py).
Settings (repository variables; all optional)
IL_BASE_URL, IL_CUSTOM_DOMAIN, IL_GOATCOUNTER (cookieless analytics), IL_RELOOK_REPORT_URL (the money slot). See .env.example and OPERATIONS.md.
Licence
Code MIT; content and data CC BY 4.0. See LICENSE. Research, not investment advice.
