| Composite stress gauge | 31 signals, each scaled 0 (calm) to 100 (crisis), then averaged | derived |
| AI chips, hyperscalers, neoclouds, private credit, bank lenders, DC REITs & power, on-prem AI infrastructure, broad market | Relative-performance charts vs. S&P 500 and a scoreboard (1D/1M/3M/YTD/off 52-week high) | Yahoo Finance |
| Hyperscaler capex vs. revenue | Trailing-twelve-month capex, revenue, capex/revenue and YoY growth for MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL | SEC EDGAR (XBRL) |
| AI adoption | Reported users per AI lab over time (ChatGPT weekly users, Gemini, Meta AI, Copilot, Grok, Qwen monthly users), paid subscribers and work seats, latest figure per lab with 1-year growth, plus marked third-party estimates. Curated in data/ai-users.json, reviewed weekly | Company announcements, earnings calls and filings; Sensor Tower, Similarweb, QuestMobile |
| Anthropic | Quarterly revenue vs operating costs, expense breakdown, operating vs net income, compute cost as % of revenue, compute commitments vs revenue, $100K+ customers, annual/half-year results and other S-1 figures. Curated in data/anthropic.json; after the IPO, each quarter is appended from the 10-Q | Anthropic S-1 (SEC EDGAR), then 10-Q/10-K |
| Circular financing | Nvidia days sales outstanding, days of inventory, and non-marketable stakes in private companies | SEC EDGAR (XBRL) |
| AI money web | Live recreation of Bloomberg's Nvidia/OpenAI deal web: companies sized by market value (price × SEC share count) or last private round, arrows for each deal by type, round-trip pairs, full deal list with sources | data/ai-deals.json (curated, reviewed weekly), Yahoo, SEC |
| SPV tracker | GPU-backed loan pricing over SOFR by date, USD.AI stablecoin GPU-lending deposits (DefiLlama, live), data-center and GPU-backed SPVs: tenant, equity holders, lenders, debt, rating, terms, reported loan prices and events; lender rollup with stock drawdowns; hyperscaler lease and purchase obligations vs. reported debt | data/ai-spvs.json (curated, reviewed weekly), SEC EDGAR (XBRL) |
| Software & private credit | Public SaaS stocks and the IGV ETF vs. the S&P 500; sector facts on private-credit lending to software; each public BDC's software share next to its price / NAV | Yahoo, data/bdc-software.json (curated from 10-Qs, reviewed weekly), BIS, Octus, Kamakura |
| BDCs & redemptions | Price / NAV for public BDCs; SC TO-I tender-offer filings from non-traded private-credit funds | Yahoo, SEC EDGAR |
| GPU rental market | $/GPU-hour by source (weekly market median across ~90 providers with spot and 12-month reserved, Vast.ai marketplace, RunPod and Lambda list prices); weekly history charts, archived to Blob so they grow past the 53 free weeks | GetDeploying open dataset (CC BY 4.0), Vast.ai, RunPod API, Lambda pricing page |
| Cost of intelligence | Best open-weight vs. best closed model on Epoch's Capabilities Index over time (gap and lag), API price vs. capability for the top models, cheapest near-frontier price, automatic detection of API price changes, share of US businesses using AI, electricity prices | Epoch AI benchmark data, OpenRouter API, Census BTOS, FRED |
| Classic bubble gauges | A scorecard of seven market-wide warning signs (normal / elevated / flashing) and their history: Shiller CAPE vs P/E, excess CAPE yield (Shiller and TIPS methods), the Buffett indicator, the 10y−2y yield curve, Fed hiking cycles, breadth and margin debt | multpl.com (Shiller data), FRED, FINRA |
| Prediction markets | Polymarket odds on an AI bubble bursting, CoreWeave/OpenAI/Anthropic bankruptcy, a US recession, Fed hikes and the Anthropic IPO, with daily history | Polymarket (Gamma and CLOB APIs) |
| Credit spreads & stress | AI borrowers' reported 5-year CDS spreads and bond prices with implied default odds (data/credit-stress.json, curated weekly), Fed loan-officer survey (banks tightening business-loan standards), C&I loans, HY, CCC and BBB OAS, 10-year yield, VIX, NFCI, St. Louis Fed stress index | FRED |
| Concentration & Fed | Equal-weight ÷ cap-weight S&P 500, Fed funds rate, 10y−3m curve, recession probability | Yahoo, FRED |
| AI in GDP | US data center facility counts by stage (dcmap.us and Kadoa, saved daily), US data center capacity operating vs. under construction (CBRE, data/datacenters.json), how much of GDP growth comes from IT equipment & software investment (vs. the dot-com era), IT investment share of GDP vs. the dot-com peak, monthly data-center construction, GDP final sales of computers, business investment in computers and software, power construction | FRED (BEA, Census), Our World in Data |
| Consumers & household debt | Consumer sentiment, saving rate, household debt % of GDP, debt payments % of income, consumer credit, auto loans, credit card and mortgage delinquency, 30-year mortgage rate | FRED |
| Labor | Information and professional-services unemployment, claims, job openings | FRED |
| Adoption & compute | Gen-AI adoption share, hosting PPI, semiconductor production | FRED |
| Google Trends | Search interest for AI assistants (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, ...), "AI", bubble-fear terms, and Claude vs. peers. The last good copy is saved to Blob in case Trends rate-limits a refresh | Google Trends (unofficial endpoints) |
| News | Eleven Google News searches over the last 7 days | Google News RSS |
