EARLY, NOT WRONG

Agent reputation marketplace, natively on Casper. Autonomous conviction, on-chain proof, MCP-queriable reputation, x402 micropayments.

AI agents are about to trade, lend, and govern on-chain. But no agent can trust another agent's self-reported track record. Early, Not Wrong fixes this: an autonomous DeFi agent that makes conviction-based trading decisions, anchors every thesis to a Casper Odra smart contract as an immutable on-chain record, and exposes that record to other agents via Model Context Protocol with x402 CEP-18 micropayments. Trust queries are free; the live tradeable data is paid per call.

Casper is the trust layer for the agent economy. This project uses the full Casper AI Toolkit: Odra smart contracts, MCP server, x402 facilitator, CSPR.cloud RPC, casper-js-sdk, and the Casper Wallet browser extension.

Autonomous BSC Trading Agent          Casper Reputation Marketplace
┌──────────────────────────┐          ┌───────────────────────────────────┐
│ 7-factor conviction      │          │  ConvictionRegistry (Odra/Rust)   │
│ 6 deterministic + LLM    │──anchor──►│  • subject_hash → history          │
│ jury (±15 adjustment)    │  thesis  │  • thesis_hash → point lookup       │
│                          │  + score │  • CES events (free reads)         │
│ Risk guardrails          │          │                                    │
│ TWAK / SoDEX execution   │          │  MCP Server (6 tools)              │
└──────────┬───────────────┘          │  • Free: reputation, latest, by    │
           │                          │    thesis, jury deliberation        │
           ▼                          │  • Paid: history, cross-chain,      │
┌──────────────────────────┐          │    live signals (x402)              │
│  Mantle ERC-8004 mirror   │          │                                    │
│  Aleo ZK privacy proof    │          │  x402 Paywall (CSPR.cloud)         │
└──────────────────────────┘          │  • CEP-18 per-request payment       │
                                      │  • Facilitator pays gas            │
OTHER AGENTS ──MCP query──► ─free──► │  • CROO CAP (USDC/Base) second rail │
(yield bots,              ──paid──►  └───────────────────────────────────┘
 wallets, oracles)

The agent is a bidirectional MCP participant: it exposes 6 tools for other agents to query its reputation, and it consumes 2 Casper ecosystem MCP servers (CSPR.trade DEX prices + Casper blockchain status) as cross-chain context for its LLM conviction jury.

The companion Next.js dashboard surfaces the live agent's state, conviction signals, dual-chain anchors, and (separately) lets users analyze their own Solana / Base wallet history through the same conviction lens with optional ZK-private reputation.

A second data pipeline runs alongside CMC: SoSoValue API for token snapshots, SSI indices, news feeds, and macro events; SoDEX as a testnet orderbook execution venue alongside TWAK; and an AI market narrative generator that produces natural-language commentary from SoSoValue's feeds and the conviction state.

SoSoValue API ──┬── Token snapshots ──► Price / RSI / Quality (30s refresh)
                ├── SSI Indices ──────► Regime confirmation (BTCSSI/ETHSSI 7d Δ
                │                       reweights FGI + funding)
                ├── News feeds ───────► (a) Market narrative + (b) per-symbol
                │                       sentiment → ±10pp conviction
                └── Macro events ────► Trade-size pause (high-impact <12h:
                                          halve size; <4h: skip entries)
                       │
                  ┌────▼────┐
                  │         │
CMC MCP ─────────►  Conviction Engine  ◄──── On-Chain Holder Growth
                  │         │
                  └────┬────┘
                       │
                  SoDEX (testnet) │ TWAK (BSC)
                  (orderbook,     │ (AMM swap,
                   ValueChain)    │  universal fallback)
                       │
                  ┌────▼────┐
                  │         │
                  │ Anchor  │──► Mantle (ERC-8004)
                  │ Layer   │──► Casper (Odra)
                  │         │
                  └─────────┘

Live

Casper Agentic Buildathon 2026 — Final Round submission. Agent reputation marketplace, natively on Casper: Odra contract, MCP server, x402 paywall. Full narrative in docs/archive/CASPER_SUBMISSION.md.

Casper AI Toolkit Usage

Toolkit Component	Status	How We Use It
Odra Framework	Deployed	ConvictionRegistry smart contract in Rust, deployed on Casper Testnet
MCP Servers	Live	Agent exposes 6 tools at POST /mcp (Streamable HTTP) + consumes 2 Casper ecosystem MCP servers (CSPR.trade + blockchain)
x402 Micropayments	Live	HTTP-native paywall: paid tools return PaymentRequirements, clients pay via CEP-18 transfer, CSPR.cloud facilitator settles
CSPR.cloud APIs	Live	RPC for contract reads/writes, state_get_dictionary_item for free CES event reads
casper-js-sdk	Live	ContractCallBuilder for anchor writes, SessionBuilder for deploys
Casper Wallet (browser ext.)	Live	In-browser wallet connect + sign proof + user-initiated anchoring

Live Links

• Landing page — https://earlynotwrong.vercel.app/
• Agent dashboard — https://earlynotwrong.vercel.app/agent
• Casper contract — testnet.cspr.live
• MCP endpoint — POST http://144.202.117.160:31777/mcp (6 tools; trust-decision queries + live signals free, wallet-score x402-paid)
• Agent API — GET http://144.202.117.160:31777/status
• CROO Agent Store — agent.croo.network (signals-live free distribution, wallet-score $0.05 hero)
• GitHub — https://github.com/thisyearnofear/earlynotwrong

One-Curl x402 Challenge (live, no setup)

curl -sS -X POST http://144.202.117.160:31777/mcp \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -H 'accept: application/json, text/event-stream' \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call","params":{"name":"get_live_signals","arguments":{}}}'

Returns a live Casper PaymentRequirements object (0.5 CSPR via CEP-18). See docs/CASPER_INTEGRATION.md for the full reproduction guide.

One-curl edge report (does the signal have edge?)

curl -sS http://144.202.117.160:31777/edge-report | jq '.verdict, .hasEdge, .edge'

Returns the conviction strategy vs naive-baseline head-to-head: Sharpe/return/drawdown deltas and factor attribution of winning exits. Or run it locally with npm run edge-report (prints a formatted table).

Dual-chain anchor verification

• Casper Testnet — contract package
• Mantle Sepolia — ERC-8004 registry

Quick Start

# Install
npm install
cd agent && npm install && cd ..

# Web app (Next.js dashboard)
npm run dev

# Agent — simulator mode (no credentials needed)
AGENT_MODE=simulator npm run --prefix agent dev

# Agent — live mode (see agent/.env.example for the full env)
cp agent/.env.example agent/.env   # fill in values
npm run --prefix agent dev

Quick Start — SoSoValue + SoDEX Pipeline

# 1. SoSoValue API access
# Register at https://openapi.sosovalue.com → get API key
# Then:
echo "SOSOVALUE_API_KEY=your_key_here" >> agent/.env

# 2. SoDEX testnet (no application needed — works directly)
# Generate an EIP-712 signing key pair, then:
echo "SODEX_API_KEY_PRIVATE=0x1234...5678" >> agent/.env
echo "SODEX_API_KEY_NAME=enw-agent" >> agent/.env

# 3. AI market narrative (optional — template mode works without these)
echo "OPENAI_API_KEY=sk-..." >> agent/.env   # GPT-4o-mini
echo "ANTHROPIC_API_KEY=sk-ant-..." >> agent/.env  # Claude 3 Haiku

Quick Start — CROO Agent Protocol (CAP)

# 1. Create your agent on https://agent.croo.network, then register
#    two services — free signals distribution + the hero paid wallet-score
#    audit (see docs/CROO_INTEGRATION.md for why the other four
#    reputation tools, including the free reputation-agent trust check,
#    stay MCP-only instead of Store-listed):
#    • signals-live          ($0 free — live conviction signals)
#    • wallet-score          ($0.05 hero — behavioral wallet audit)
#
# 2. Copy the SDK key from the CROO dashboard
echo "CROO_SDK_KEY=croo_sk_..." >> agent/.env
#
# 3. (Optional) Override default CROO endpoints
echo "CROO_API_URL=https://api.croo.network" >> agent/.env
echo "CROO_WS_URL=wss://api.croo.network/ws" >> agent/.env

When the agent starts it will connect to CROO via WebSocket and accept incoming reputation orders. Payment settles on-chain in USDC on Base.

Current status: live. CROO wallet 0x5d3d23679DFb6b01107b50A840b3c2EbB45AeE2C is whitelisted, CROO_SDK_KEY is set, and the agent is connected ([cap] Connected to CROO CAP) — confirmed at GET /cap/status.

Key Documents

Document	What it covers
docs/README.md	Documentation index: current architecture, integrations, operations, and historical material
SOUL.md	Design philosophy and architectural soul
AGENTS.md	Agent orchestration guide
docs/CORE_PRINCIPLES.md	Enhancement First, DRY, Consolidation — governs every change
docs/AGENT_DESIGN.md	BSC trading agent: 6-factor signal, bankroll discipline, 6-layer scam-token defense
docs/HARNESS_ARCHITECTURE_PLAN.md	Domain-agnostic harness: crypto + options domains, adapter registry
docs/MANTLE_INTEGRATION.md	ERC-8004 ConvictionRegistry on Mantle Sepolia
docs/A2A_BUYER_GUIDE.md	Start here for buyers — MCP + CROO rails, free signals → $0.05 wallet-score audit, curl + requester
examples/buyer-agent/

Core Thesis

In asymmetric markets, conviction isn't tested when you're wrong — it's tested when you're early. Losses are capped (−1x), but wins are uncapped. The most expensive mistake isn't being wrong — it's selling winners too early. The agent encodes this as a six-factor contrarian signal (contrarian + RSI timing + quality + fear-regime + holder growth − volatility penalty) and holds through ordinary drawdown by design.

Architecture (One-Line Map)

Core Agent

• Conviction Engine — agent/lib/conviction-signal.ts (pure functions)
• Risk Guardrails — agent/lib/risk-guardrails.ts (drawdown, concentration, conviction floor, allowlist)
• TWAK Execution — agent/lib/twak-executor.ts + scam-token defense (DexScreener pool depth + reference-price gate)
• On-Chain Portfolio — agent/lib/onchain-portfolio.ts (balanceOf truth, contract-priced)
• Anchor Adapters — agent/lib/anchors/{mantle,casper,index}.ts (one interface, N chains, read + write)
• Casper Contract — casper/src/conviction_registry.rs (Odra/Rust)
• MCP Server — agent/src/mcp/{server,tools,x402,pricing}.ts (6 tools, x402 paywall, mounted on the existing Hono process)
• CAP Adapter — agent/src/cap/{client,handler,pricing}.ts (CROO Agent Protocol WebSocket client, USDC settlement, reuses the same reputation tools)
• Payment Stats — agent/src/payment-stats.ts (shared counters for x402 and CAP)
• Dashboard — src/app/agent/page.tsx (Next.js, proxies the live agent, surfaces MCP + x402 + CAP stats)

SoSoValue + SoDEX Pipeline

• Composite Data Provider — agent/lib/data-providers.ts (SosovalueClient + CmcClient in one module — 30s-refresh token snapshots, SSI indices, news feeds, macro events; SoSoValue token prices preferred, CMC fills regime gaps)
• SoDEX Client + EIP-712 Signing — agent/lib/dex-trading.ts (SodexClient, nonce manager, signed market orders, balances) — ValueChain testnet, TWAK fallback on miss
• SoSoValue Trading Signals — agent/lib/sosovalue-signals.ts (SSI index regime confirmation → scoreMarketRegime; high-impact macro event pause → trade sizing; per-symbol news sentiment → scoreTokenConviction)
• Market Narrative Generator — agent/lib/market-narrative.ts (template-based + optional LLM-enhanced market commentary from SoSoValue feeds)

Origins & Casper Buildathon Submission

This codebase has been developed across several 2026 hackathons and bounties, each contributing a specific layer of the architecture. See the documents below for the full lineage and design history.

The Casper Agentic Buildathon 2026 submission is the reputation marketplace layer: an Odra smart contract on Casper Testnet, a Casper adapter that reads and writes that contract, an MCP server exposing the registry to other agents, and an x402 paywall so agents pay per query with CEP-18 micropayments. The autonomous BSC trading agent is the live reputation source that feeds this layer.

For the buildathon submission narrative, see docs/archive/CASPER_SUBMISSION.md.

Layer history

Layer	Hackathon / Bounty	Document
Autonomous BSC trading agent, 6-factor conviction signal, bankroll discipline	BNB Hack: AI Trading Agent Edition	docs/AGENT_DESIGN.md
ERC-8004 ConvictionRegistry on Mantle	Mantle Turing Test 2026	docs/MANTLE_INTEGRATION.md
Odra registry + MCP server + x402 paywall on Casper	Casper Agentic Buildathon 2026	docs/CASPER_INTEGRATION.md
CROO Agent Protocol adapter with USDC settlement on Base	CROO Hackathon	docs/CROO_INTEGRATION.md
Aleo ZK selective disclosure + signed-voucher rebates	Aleo Privacy Buildathon 2026	docs/PRIVACY_MODEL.md
SoSoValue market data + SoDEX execution + AI narrative	SoSoValue Buildathon 2026 (Wave 3)	docs/SOSOVALUE_INTEGRATION.md
Solana four-gate pre-trade safety skill	Superteam Brasil Solana AI Kit	agent/lib/solana-safety.ts + solana-safe-trade-skill

What This Is NOT

A trading bot. A signals platform. A leaderboard for speculation. Financial advice. This is self-knowledge for asymmetric markets — backed by a portable, cross-chain reputation layer.

AG Grid

AG Grid (free Community edition) could make EarlyNotWrong's position explorer, trade history, and conviction score matrix sortable/filterable/groupable — letting users slice by token, conviction tier, or outcome without custom table code. The dashboard surfaces multiple tabular views (open positions, trade log, behavioral metrics) that benefit from inline grid interaction.

License

MIT