Pre-IPO Anthropic & OpenAI Exposure — Open Data

Curated, sourced data on the public securities that hold equity or equity-equivalent exposure to Anthropic and OpenAI, plus a documented method for converting each holding into dollars of look-through exposure per $100 of wrapper value.

Live calculator: https://stocks.bolewood.com/ai

This repository is the data and the method. The calculator is one consumer of it; you can reproduce every published figure without running the site.

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Why this exists

Public write-ups routinely call several different things "a stake." Disclosed ownership, a capital commitment with no ownership figure, a fund's filed fair value divided by the round that marked it, and an analyst's estimate are not the same claim and do not deserve the same confidence — but they are usually printed in the same format.

Every record here is typed by the kind of evidence behind it, carries its own as-of date, and cites a source. Where no primary source supports an ownership percentage, no percentage is published.

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What's in here

Path	Contents
data/wrappers/	One record per security
data/marks.json	Anthropic and OpenAI round history, each mark sourced
data/private-tape.json	Private Tape modeled sleeve config for DXYZ, Anthropic and SpaceX
data/schema/	JSON Schema — a discriminated union on basis
data/METHODOLOGY.md	How exposure is computed, and what is not modeled
data/CONTRIBUTING.md	Source hierarchy and correction process
data/CHANGELOG.md	Typed history: data update / correction / methodology / schema
data/meta.json	schemaVersion, methodologyVersion
reference/	Standalone calculator — no app code, MIT

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The Basis taxonomy

basis records how a figure is known. It is a discriminated union: each value carries only the fields that actually exist for it, and any percentage that can be derived is derived rather than stored.

Basis	Meaning	Source class
disclosed	Issuer or investor disclosed an ownership percentage	Primary
pro-forma	Disclosed percentage upon completion of a pending transaction	Primary
historical	Disclosed at an earlier date; may since have been diluted	Primary
filed-fv-equiv	Fund's reported fair value ÷ the valuation that marked it	Primary
filed-units	Fund's filed share-equivalent units × price; no company %	Primary
carrying-value-equiv	Corporate carrying value ÷ the valuation that marked it	Primary
round-implied	Investment amount ÷ round post-money	Primary
commitment	Capital promised; ownership and terms unavailable — no percentage published	Primary or secondary
estimate	Third-party estimate, not issuer disclosure	Secondary

A single security can carry different bases for its two legs. Microsoft's OpenAI position is disclosed; its Anthropic position is a commitment and therefore publishes no percentage and no per-$100 figure.

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Reading a record

(regenerated by npm run sync:readme — do not hand-edit)

DXYZ — Anthropic leg

basis:                    filed-units
filedUnits:               386,088        (pre-split Series B preferred equivalents; converts to Class N, S-1 p. 20)
reportedFairValue:        $235.671976M   (as of 2026-06-30, N-CSRS)
→ markPerUnit:            $610.41        per pre-split unit ($61.041 per ANT share; 10-for-1 split, S-1 p. 22)
→ S-1 FD shares (6/30):   1,778,366,016 pre-split (17,783,660,160 post-split, incl. 5% public-benefit fund; S-1 p. 13)
→ scenario price:         $542.633 per pre-split unit ($54.2633 per ANT share) = valuation × (1 − dilution) ÷ FD shares
→ scenario exposure:      0.021710266% (units ÷ S-1 FD shares)

ΔNAV per $1 pre-split:    $0.008101      (386,088 ÷ 47,657,338; $0.08101 per $1 of ANT share price)
denominator:              $1.565067B     (market-cap: 47,657,338 sh × $32.84)

386,088 × $542.633 ÷ $1.565067B × $100  =  $13.39 per $100

($32.84 from reference/fixtures.json — frozen prices dated August 19 with the October 26 S-1 dataset, not a historical backtest. Filed Holdings; both valuation and FD controls revalue this row. Display digits are rounded; calculation uses full precision.)

For Anthropic filed-fv-equiv and carrying-value-equiv legs (AGIX, AMZN, ARKVX, VCX, ZM), reported fair or carrying value is converted into pre-split share-equivalents at the measurement round's preferred price (S-1 p. F-47: Series G-1 $259.14, Series H-1 $589.0095, or VCX scaled from H-1) and divided by the selected fully diluted share count (= old % × FD_round / FD_now). For filed-units (DXYZ and SKM), filed pre-split units ÷ selected FD shares produces the equivalent stake directly. Both valuation and FD controls revalue all unit and share-equivalent legs. See data/METHODOLOGY.md and data/SOURCE_CHANGES.md.

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Verify it yourself

npm run reference

Runs the standalone calculator in reference/ over data/ with fixed prices, scenario marks, dilution, FD and acquisition assumptions, and reproduces reference/expected-results.json plus reference/estimated-expected-results.json. No application code, no network. If your output differs from the published table at the same inputs, that is a bug worth filing.

Use /ai?reference=filed, /ai?reference=estimated, or /ai?reference=s1 to load identical frozen inputs. Copy/export scenario JSON from the page and run npm run reference -- --scenario /path/ai-scenario.json to reproduce another setting with its frozen dataset, prices and ATM bridge.

Private Tape data

The Private Tape page tests whether Anthropic's private/pre-IPO tape and SpaceX's public 24/7 tape lead DXYZ's next opening gap. The curated assumptions are committed in data/private-tape.json; live aligned datasets are published from the site:

Endpoint	Contents
/api/private-tape/manifest	Machine-readable dataset manifest, columns, license notes and methodology
/api/private-tape	JSON payload with config, cards, analyses and aligned datasets
/api/private-tape?format=csv&dataset=overnight	DXYZ overnight opening-gap samples
/api/private-tape?format=csv&dataset=rth	30-minute overlapping NYSE-hours return samples

These exports are generated from runtime Hyperliquid and Yahoo market data. The repo publishes the config, source links, analysis code and methodology, not raw candle histories or live quotes.

The Entropy/Hyperliquid marks are used only as observable market data, not as a recommendation to trade on, custody assets with, or rely on those venues. SpaceX now trades publicly as SPCX, so that leg is public-equity/perp tape rather than pre-IPO price discovery; DXYZ's SpaceX SPV exposure may lag public marks.

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Denominators

"Wrapper value" is not always market capitalisation, and using the wrong denominator is an easy way to get a badly wrong answer:

denominatorType	Used for
market-cap	Listed operating companies and listed closed-end funds
adr-equivalent-market-cap	ADRs — issuer-equivalent shares, ratio sourced
total-net-assets	Unlisted / interval funds, taken from the same filing as the holdings

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Filed vs. Estimated

Holdings selection is separate from scenario valuation:

• Filed Holdings uses filed fund quantities and denominators. The valuation sliders still revalue holdings using explicit assumptions, including estimated FD counts.
• Estimated Holdings adds DXYZ's August purchase and a documented ATM bridge, plus modeled fund inflows/mark changes. Strategic records retain their displayed historical, pro forma or other basis. Source dates and evidence can be mixed and are labeled.

Where a fund raised capital after its last filing and the deployment is unknown, the result is published as a deployment sensitivity range covering cash and pro rata endpoints. FD/entry-price sensitivity is shown separately; neither range is a confidence interval.

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What is not modelled

Taxes, fees, carry, liquidation preferences, conversion terms, anti-dilution, ownership caps, transfer restrictions, lockups, future financing, and differences between a fund's mark and a primary round.

Specific exclusions are documented in data/METHODOLOGY.md — for example, DXYZ's OpenAI profit participation units are not equity per the N-CSR and are excluded from IPO scaling.

These figures are gross scenario estimates, not NAV, liquidation value, expected proceeds, or price targets.

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Corrections

Corrections are welcome and are the main reason this data is public.

Records typed disclosed, pro-forma, historical, filed-fv-equiv, filed-units, carrying-value-equiv or round-implied require a primary source — SEC EDGAR, issuer IR, a depositary agreement. Secondary sources are accepted only for estimate, and for commitment where no primary announcement exists.

Any pull request changing a number must update its value, its as-of date and its source together. See data/CONTRIBUTING.md.

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Versioning and citation

data/meta.json carries schemaVersion and methodologyVersion. A figure moving because an issuer filed a new report is categorically different from a figure moving because the method changed, and data/CHANGELOG.md types every entry accordingly.

Cite a dated tag rather than main, so the numbers behind your reference don't move. See CITATION.cff.

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Licensing

• Data and database: CC BY 4.0, to the extent applicable rights exist in the curated selection, arrangement and documentation (data/LICENSE-DATA). Attribution and citation to stocks.bolewood.com are requested for downstream reuse.
• Reference implementation and application code: MIT (LICENSE).

Live market prices are a runtime input and are not redistributed in this dataset.

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Disclosure

As of October 26, 2026, the author holds long positions in DXYZ, SKM, ZM, AMZN, GOOG, NVDA, NSLR and PWRL. The DXYZ exposure includes options. The author also holds a direct long position in Anthropic through an SPV. Positions are subject to change without notice.

Six of the eleven securities covered here are held by the author. Every input is published and every figure is reproducible from data/ specifically so that this does not have to be taken on trust.

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Development

Next.js app for the calculator front-end.

npm run dev          # http://localhost:3000
npm test             # node --test over test/*.test.mjs
npm run reference    # regenerate reference results from data/
npm run sync:readme  # regenerate generated README sections from data/