Three-Rule Tracker

Tracker and backtest for three trading rules credited to David Paul (MoneyShow, via a coingrams reel):

1. Take the trade that feels difficult. Buy after hard down days (RSI(2) ≤ 15), sell after sharp rallies (RSI(2) ≥ 85).
2. Trade against the short-term trend when it conflicts with the long-term trend. Buy when close > 200-day SMA and < 10-day SMA; sell when close < 200-day SMA and > 10-day SMA.
3. Know where most traders put their stops. Buy after price trades below the prior 10-day low (stops flushed) within the last 3 bars; sell after it trades above the prior 10-day high.

A signal fires when all three agree. Positions exit when the close crosses back over the 10-day SMA, on a stop 0.25 ATR beyond the swept extreme, or after 15 bars.

The thresholds are this project's interpretation of the rules, not the speaker's published parameters. Study tool only, not investment advice.

What's here

Path	Purpose
index.html	The tracker: today's verdict, rule checklist, price chart with rule strip, per-symbol backtest and equity curve
engine.js	Rule engine and performance stats, shared by the page and the backtest script
scripts/fetch-data.js	Downloads 10 years of daily bars for each tracked symbol into data/bars/
scripts/symbols.js	The tracked instruments; add a row to track another symbol
.github/workflows/pages.yml	Every 30 minutes (and on push): fetch bars, rerun the backtest, publish to the gh-pages branch
scripts/backtest.js	Runs the 13-instrument backtest and parameter grid, writes BACKTEST.md and data/backtest.json
scripts/dev.js	Local static server

Run locally

Needs Node 18 or newer. No dependencies.

npm run data

npm run dev

The first command downloads the data; the second serves the site at http://localhost:3000.

Re-run the backtest

npm run backtest

Arguments: node scripts/backtest.js <range> <costBps>, for example node scripts/backtest.js max 10.

See BACKTEST.md for the latest results.

Live site

https://acenasir.github.io/three-rule-tracker/

Add #SYMBOL to open a specific instrument, for example #GC=F. A backup link with no setup is https://raw.githack.com/acenasir/three-rule-tracker/gh-pages/index.html (it shows a one-time "Open the page" notice).

Deploy

The workflow in .github/workflows/pages.yml rebuilds the gh-pages branch every 30 minutes and on every push to main. You can also run it by hand from the Actions tab. Any static host can serve that branch:

• GitHub Pages (in use): Settings → Pages → Deploy from a branch → gh-pages / root.
• Vercel: import the repo; with no data files on main, the page reads live bars from api/chart.

Scheduled runs can lag a few minutes, and GitHub pauses schedules on repos with no activity for 60 days.