Oracle3
Open-source trading engine and MCP server for prediction markets. Fee-aware no-arbitrage trading across related contracts, live on Kalshi, Polymarket and Solana or on paper.
Subsidence, weather, flood, groundwater and coastal erosion across 2,736 UK postcode districts — a 5-dim vine copula calibrated to ABI payouts, plus a climate-change repricing. All open data.
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Four-peril UK home insurance risk model (subsidence, weather, flood, groundwater) joined by a vine copula, built entirely on open data. Interactive map + methodology.
Taken from the repository README
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Interactive choropleth of 2,736 UK postcode districts rating eight home-insurance
perils — subsidence, weather damage, flood (rivers, sea and surface
water), groundwater flooding, theft, escape of water, fire and
accidental damage — the
four weather-driven perils joined by a C-vine copula, the attritional four
priced as independent legs (burglary does not arrive on the storm track, burst
pipes answer to cold snaps, dwelling fires follow deprivation and dwelling
type, and accidental damage follows the household itself), banded into 10
rating groups.Read the full README ↗The full README is unavailable right now. Read it at the original link. The saved excerpt is shown below.
Interactive choropleth of 2,736 UK postcode districts rating eight home-insurance
perils — subsidence, weather damage, flood (rivers, sea and surface
water), groundwater flooding, theft, escape of water, fire and
accidental damage — the
four weather-driven perils joined by a C-vine copula, the attritional four
priced as independent legs (burglary does not arrive on the storm track, burst
pipes answer to cold snaps, dwelling fires follow deprivation and dwelling
type, and accidental damage follows the household itself), banded into 10
rating groups.Read the full README ↗