Seasonal Rainfall Outlook Platform

Calibrated seasonal rainfall outlooks for Ethiopia (ECMWF SEAS5 → CHIRPS).

Calibrated tercile probabilities and corrected rainfall amounts for Ethiopia from the ECMWF SEAS5 May initialization, verified against CHIRPS v2.0 (0.25°).

Targets: JJAS season and the months Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep (May initialization), and ONDJ with Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan (September initialization; config/ondj/, config/cycles/sep_2026_ondj.json). Reference period 1993–2025 (25-member hindcasts 1993–2016, 51-member forecasts 2017 onward). Platform: Windows 11, CMD, Python 3.11 x64, project .venv.

Results site: https://yonsci.github.io/calibrated_seasonal_rainfall/ (built by scripts/build_site.py; rebuild after results change). Current status and open items: docs/36_PROJECT_STATUS_REVIEW.md. Reproducible runbook, issue log and automation blueprint: docs/38_REPRODUCIBLE_RUNBOOK.md. Training notebook (ONDJ walkthrough): notebooks/ONDJ_training_walkthrough.ipynb — regenerate with python notebooksuild_ondj_training_notebook.py (needs pip install -r requirements-notebook.txt). Training notebook (rainfall regimes and JJAS / FMAM / ONDJ domains): notebooks/Rainfall_domains_JJAS_FMAM_ONDJ.ipynb — regenerate with python notebooksuild_rainfall_domains_notebook.py. Run guides for every season (JJAS, FMAM, ONDJ): forecast, verification, next year: docs/40_SEASON_RUN_GUIDES.md. Hands-on run guide (January-initialized FMAM 2026, download → GitHub page): docs/39_FMAM_RUN_GUIDE.md. Next forecast cycle (2027): docs/37_NEW_FORECAST_CYCLE.md. Cycle files live in config/cycles/; select one with set CALIBRATION_CYCLE=....

Final method (frozen for 2026)

1. Prepare native seasonal and monthly totals (prepare_seasonal.py, run_monthly.py).
2. Copy each 1° ECMWF cell into its 4×4 block of 0.25° CHIRPS cells (regrid_seasonal.py).
3. Correct per-cell mean and variance of member amounts (calibration_core.py).
4. Form smoothed member-count tercile probabilities, (n + 0.5) / (M + 1.5).
5. Blend with climatology using one weight per target, fitted on leave-one-year-out RPS over 1993–2025 (final_shared_blend.py).

Dirichlet recalibration, local blends and regime blends were evaluated and not adopted (docs 13–17, 25–28).

Common commands (CMD)

cd /d D:\calibrated_seasonal_rainfall
call .venv\Scripts\activate.bat

:: Inputs
python scripts\inspect_inputs.py --config config\project.json
python scripts\prepare_seasonal.py --config config\project.json --all-years

:: Final fit and 2026 forecast (do NOT rerun after the freeze; see below)
python scripts\final_shared_blend.py --config config\project.json --region-mask data\masks\ethiopia_common.nc

:: Operational products, verification and gallery
python scripts\run_operational.py --workflow products
python scripts\run_operational.py --workflow all
start "" outputs\operational_2026\index.html

:: Housekeeping: preview, then delete old --regenerate backups (keeps newest per output)
python scripts\prune_backups.py
python scripts\prune_backups.py --apply

:: Tests
python -m unittest discover -s tests

The 2026 forecasts are frozen with SHA-256 hashes in outputs/verification_2026/frozen_forecasts/freeze_manifest.json. Regenerating outputs/final_shared_blend changes those hashes and blocks verification by design.

Folder map

Path	Purpose
config/	project.json (JJAS), monthly_*.json, operational.json (2026 cycle), cycles/ (2027 template, 2025 backtest)
scripts/	Pipeline, verification, delivery and runner scripts
tests/	Unit and smoke tests
docs/	Numbered step documents 01–36 (read in order; 36 is the current status)
data/raw/	ECMWF and CHIRPS sources
data/interim/, data/processed/	Native-grid and common-grid seasonal/monthly totals
data/masks/, data/boundaries/	Ethiopia mask and admin boundary
evidence/	Regime masks and evidence snapshots used by delivery and verification
outputs/final_shared_blend/	Fitted 2026 forecasts per target
outputs/forecast_delivery/	Bulletin, maps and bundle
outputs/verification_2026/, outputs/verification_report_2026/	Frozen forecasts and verification
outputs/operational_2026/	Runner outputs and offline gallery
archive/	Superseded patch packages (Step 33 validation, Step 35 Windows fix)

Documentation order

01–08 setup, data, inspection and design · 09–17 regridding, calibration and method comparison · 18–20 monthly fixes and final blend · 21–24 maps · 25–28 regimes and the August review · 29–32 delivery, freeze and verification · 33–35 operational runner · 36 status review · 37 new forecast cycle · 38 runbook and issue log · 39 FMAM run guide · 40 season run guides.