Seasonal Rainfall Outlook Platform
Calibrated seasonal rainfall outlooks for Ethiopia (ECMWF SEAS5 → CHIRPS).
Calibrated tercile probabilities and corrected rainfall amounts for Ethiopia from
the ECMWF SEAS5 May initialization, verified against CHIRPS v2.0 (0.25°).
Targets: JJAS season and the months Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep (May initialization), and ONDJ with Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan (September initialization; config/ondj/, config/cycles/sep_2026_ondj.json).
Reference period 1993–2025 (25-member hindcasts 1993–2016, 51-member forecasts 2017 onward).
Platform: Windows 11, CMD, Python 3.11 x64, project .venv.
Results site: https://yonsci.github.io/calibrated_seasonal_rainfall/ (built by scripts/build_site.py; rebuild after results change).
Current status and open items: docs/36_PROJECT_STATUS_REVIEW.md.
Reproducible runbook, issue log and automation blueprint: docs/38_REPRODUCIBLE_RUNBOOK.md.
Training notebook (ONDJ walkthrough): notebooks/ONDJ_training_walkthrough.ipynb — regenerate with python notebooksuild_ondj_training_notebook.py (needs pip install -r requirements-notebook.txt).
Training notebook (rainfall regimes and JJAS / FMAM / ONDJ domains): notebooks/Rainfall_domains_JJAS_FMAM_ONDJ.ipynb — regenerate with python notebooksuild_rainfall_domains_notebook.py.
Run guides for every season (JJAS, FMAM, ONDJ): forecast, verification, next year: docs/40_SEASON_RUN_GUIDES.md.
Hands-on run guide (January-initialized FMAM 2026, download → GitHub page): docs/39_FMAM_RUN_GUIDE.md.
Next forecast cycle (2027): docs/37_NEW_FORECAST_CYCLE.md. Cycle files live in config/cycles/; select one with set CALIBRATION_CYCLE=....
Final method (frozen for 2026)
- Prepare native seasonal and monthly totals (
prepare_seasonal.py, run_monthly.py).
- Copy each 1° ECMWF cell into its 4×4 block of 0.25° CHIRPS cells (
regrid_seasonal.py).
- Correct per-cell mean and variance of member amounts (
calibration_core.py).
- Form smoothed member-count tercile probabilities, (n + 0.5) / (M + 1.5).
- Blend with climatology using one weight per target, fitted on leave-one-year-out RPS
over 1993–2025 (
final_shared_blend.py).
Dirichlet recalibration, local blends and regime blends were evaluated and not adopted
(docs 13–17, 25–28).
Common commands (CMD)
cd /d D:\calibrated_seasonal_rainfall
call .venv\Scripts\activate.bat
:: Inputs
python scripts\inspect_inputs.py --config config\project.json
python scripts\prepare_seasonal.py --config config\project.json --all-years
:: Final fit and 2026 forecast (do NOT rerun after the freeze; see below)
python scripts\final_shared_blend.py --config config\project.json --region-mask data\masks\ethiopia_common.nc
:: Operational products, verification and gallery
python scripts\run_operational.py --workflow products
python scripts\run_operational.py --workflow all
start "" outputs\operational_2026\index.html
:: Housekeeping: preview, then delete old --regenerate backups (keeps newest per output)
python scripts\prune_backups.py
python scripts\prune_backups.py --apply
:: Tests
python -m unittest discover -s tests
The 2026 forecasts are frozen with SHA-256 hashes in
outputs/verification_2026/frozen_forecasts/freeze_manifest.json. Regenerating
outputs/final_shared_blend changes those hashes and blocks verification by design.
Folder map
| Path | Purpose |
|---|
config/ | project.json (JJAS), monthly_*.json, operational.json (2026 cycle), cycles/ (2027 template, 2025 backtest) |
scripts/ | Pipeline, verification, delivery and runner scripts |
tests/ | Unit and smoke tests |
docs/ | Numbered step documents 01–36 (read in order; 36 is the current status) |
data/raw/ | ECMWF and CHIRPS sources |
data/interim/, data/processed/ | Native-grid and common-grid seasonal/monthly totals |
data/masks/, data/boundaries/ | Ethiopia mask and admin boundary |
evidence/ | Regime masks and evidence snapshots used by delivery and verification |
outputs/final_shared_blend/ | Fitted 2026 forecasts per target |
outputs/forecast_delivery/ | Bulletin, maps and bundle |
outputs/verification_2026/, outputs/verification_report_2026/ | Frozen forecasts and verification |
outputs/operational_2026/ | Runner outputs and offline gallery |
archive/ | Superseded patch packages (Step 33 validation, Step 35 Windows fix) |
Documentation order
01–08 setup, data, inspection and design · 09–17 regridding, calibration and method
comparison · 18–20 monthly fixes and final blend · 21–24 maps · 25–28 regimes and the
August review · 29–32 delivery, freeze and verification · 33–35 operational runner ·
36 status review · 37 new forecast cycle · 38 runbook and issue log · 39 FMAM run guide · 40 season run guides.
