TradesWithMe V5.2.1 — Edge Diagnostics

Private personal market-research, forward-validation and paper-allocation desk for https://tradeswithme.com.

V5.2.1 adds a research-only Edge Diagnostics layer on top of V5.2 Discovery & Governance. It explains losses, caps immature agent influence inside the discovery sandbox, compares winners with losers, diagnoses stop/horizon behavior, and tracks near-miss cohorts without loosening BUY_SETUP thresholds or changing the £50 paper ceiling.

V5.2.1 additions

• Agent Influence Caps — immature specialists cannot become materially over-weighted inside discovery challengers before actionable participation matures.

• Loss Cluster Analysis — groups completed actionable outcomes by asset class, Quant Regime V2 and exit type.

• Winner-vs-Loser Differential — compares evidence, confidence, MFE/MAE and microstructure context.

• Stop/Horizon Calibration Lab — diagnoses direction quality, stop geometry or horizon capture without changing parameters automatically.

• Near-Miss Cohorts — tracks WATCH candidates near the threshold and compares their gate with historical counterfactual outcomes.

• No live authority — every V5.2.1 diagnostic remains research-only.

• Isolated Strategy Discovery Sandbox — bounded challenger weight variants are generated around the current champion. They are research-only and cannot alter safety gates or execution authority.

• Diversity Archive — MAP-Elites-inspired family preservation keeps trend, momentum, reversion, breakout, balanced and baseline families separate instead of allowing many near-identical challengers to masquerade as independent agreement.

• Pareto Promotion Engine — candidates are evaluated on robustness, tail-risk resilience and strategy concentration. Raw return alone cannot win promotion.

• Failure Replay Lab — completed actionable trades are replayed from the agent votes that were frozen before outcomes were known. Challengers are penalized for missing prior winners or repeating prior losses.

• Agent Governance / Interference Audit — compares intended strategy influence with realized ensemble influence and surfaces cases where external gates suppress otherwise-positive specialists.

• Conflict Matrix — shows current symbols where strong supporting agents and strong objecting agents disagree, including the dominant blocker and final action.

• No auto-promotion — a challenger can at most become a SHADOW_LEADER. It never changes live authority, risk caps or the production champion automatically.

Existing V5.1.1 intelligence retained

• strict prediction-market entity relevance;
• flow/on-chain context with explicit proxy labelling when no direct provider is configured;
• Kraken crypto order-book microstructure;
• agent attribution;
• trade autopsy with MFE/MAE;
• segmented Monte Carlo;
• Drift Control V2 and recovery criteria;
• Regime Engine V2, robustness matrix, counterfactual gate calibration;
• Forward Trust and Live Readiness based only on actionable forward evidence.

Supabase

V5.2.1 stores the governance snapshot inside the existing persisted scan payload, so no new V5.2.1 table is required. If your database is already migrated through V5.1.1, keep it as-is.

If you are upgrading from an older build, running the complete supabase/schema.sql remains safe and preserves existing history.

Vercel environment variables

APP_ACCESS_CODE=...
CRON_SECRET=...
PERSONAL_WATCHLIST=...
OVERNIGHT_PAPER_BUDGET_GBP=50
SUPABASE_URL=https://...supabase.co
SUPABASE_SECRET_KEY=sb_secret_...
ALPHAVANTAGE_API_KEY=...

Optional direct on-chain context:

WHALE_ALERT_API_KEY=...
WHALE_ALERT_MIN_USD=1000000

Without the optional key, crypto flow remains explicitly labelled MARKET_FLOW_PROXY.

Autonomous cycle

vercel.json runs the research cycle at 02:20 UTC:

settle outcomes
→ retrain bounded learner
→ fetch verified markets
→ Quant Intelligence
→ Signal Intelligence
→ Discovery & Governance sandbox
→ £50 paper plan
→ persist ledgers + scan

Governance lifecycle

Champion
  ↓
bounded challengers
  ↓
isolated evaluation
  ↓
robustness + Monte Carlo + diversity
  ↓
Pareto frontier
  ↓
failure replay against frozen forward cases
  ↓
SHADOW_LEADER at most

NEVER automatic live promotion

Local run

npm install
npm run typecheck
npm run build
npm run dev

GitHub / Vercel root

The repository root must directly contain:

app/
components/
docs/
lib/
public/
supabase/
package.json
vercel.json

In Vercel use Framework Preset: Next.js and leave Root Directory blank.

Safety boundary

TradesWithMe remains a research and paper-planning system. Strategy discovery and replay are diagnostics, not proof of profit. V5.2.1 contains no live broker execution path.